Monday, 14 September 2015

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

Rick Perry becomes the first Republican to drop out of the hunt.

It’s time for Rick Perry to pull his boots on one more time and ride off into the Texas sunset. (OK, not actual boots.) The former governor of the Lone Star State is the first Republican contender to drop out of the 2016 race.
In remarks to Phyllis Schafly’s Eagle Forum Friday evening, Perry announced the news.
“We have a tremendous field—the best in a generation—so I step aside knowing our party is in good hands, and as long as we listen to the grassroots, the cause of conservatism will be too,” he was to say, according to prepared remarks. “I share this news with no regrets. It has been a privilege and an honor to travel this country, to speak with the American people about their hopes and dreams, to see a sense of optimism prevalent despite a season of cynical politics.”
It had become clear that the question was not whether but when Perry would drop out, and with the second presidential debate coming up on Wednesday, leaving now avoided an embarrassing second appearance at the “kid’s table” debate for those whose polling wasn’t high enough to make the main event.

Perry had an uphill battle in the race—in large part to erase memories of his disastrous 2012 run. Four years ago, he entered the hunt and immediately became the frontrunner, but he quickly stumbled, committing repeated gaffes and never seeming totally prepared for the national glare, despite a long and successful tenure in Austin. The new, 2016 edition of Perry was supposed to be wonky and hip, complete with chunky, black glasses. But with a strong field of fresher candidates, Perry had no real opening and never caught on. Recent weeks had seen him laying off paid employees in key early primary states.

With so many candidates in the mix, it’s tough to keep track of it all. To help out with that, this cheat sheet on the state of the presidential field will be periodically updated throughout the campaign season. Here's how things look right now.

* * *

The Democrats

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***Lawrence Lessig*Who is he?** Lessig is a professor at Harvard Law School, political activist, and occasional Atlantic contributor. Lessig’s signature cause is campaign-finance reform, but he also advocates for looser copyright restrictions and has proposed a constitutional convention to modernize the nation's founding document.
Is he running? Yes. He announced an exploratory committee on August 11 and pledged to enter the race if he raises $1 million by Labor Day, which he’s done.
Who wants him to run? Lessig’s campaign is designed to cater almost exclusively to the many Americans who are upset about the influence of money in politics. He is pitching himself as a “referendum president” whose sole purpose would be to pass his proposed Citizens Equality Act of 2017, which would enact universal voting registration, campaign-finance limits, and anti-gerrymandering provisions. As Lessig noted in The Atlantic, many people are angry but no one thinks change is possible. Overcoming that barrier is his signal challenge. (He was also a law clerk to Antonin Scalia, but don’t expect that to garner him much Republican support.)

Can he win the nomination? The track record of Lessig’s Mayday PAC in the 2014 election suggest that he has not yet mastered the trick of marrying his ideas to practical politics.
What else do we know? In a season 6 episode of The West Wing, a fictional Lessig (played by Christopher Lloyd) worked with the White House to write a new constitution for Belarus.
Does his website have a good 404 page? “Sorry, we're too busy fixing democracy to design a clever 404 page!” Lessig’s earnest candidacy, in a single sentence.

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Joe BidenWho is he? Biden is vice president, and the foremost American advocate for aviator sunglasses and passenger rail.
Is he running? Biden is wrestling with that question. He seems to be grappling with a very real, human set of questions: On the one hand, he's always wanted to be president, and this is his last chance to run. On the other, he is concerned about putting his family through the trouble of a run so soon afterthe death of his son Beau, and he’d face very difficult odds. A top aide has been contacting Democratic donors, asking them to at least keep an open mind until Biden makes a final choice.
Who wants him to run? The original driving force for the run seems to have been Beau Biden, along with his brother Hunter. Within the Biden camp, former Chief of Staff Steve Ricchetti is said to be the central force. Outside, the group Draft Biden (slogan: “I’m Ridin’ With Biden”) has gained new momentum, and Democrats rattled by Hillary Clinton campaign’s struggles see him as a potential alternative.

Can he win the nomination? Even with Clinton's recent struggles, it's hard to imagine Biden beating her in a primary. The two candidates would likely share some weaknesses, and at 72, Biden would also be an unusually elderly candidate.
When will he announce? Biden will make a decision by early September,according to the Times.

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Jim WebbWho is he? Webb is a Vietnam War hero and secretary of the Navy. The author of several books, he served as a senator from Virginia from 2007 to 2013.
Is he running? Yes, as of July 2.
Who wants him to run? Dovish Democrats; socially conservative, economically populist Democrats; the Anybody-But-Hillary camp.
Can he win the nomination? Very doubtful. While Webb was the perfect candidate for Senate from Virginia in 2006, his statement in support of the Confederate flag shows why he probably has little hope in the national Democratic Party.
What else do we know? Read Webb’s longtime friend James Fallows on why he wants Webb in the race.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

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Hillary ClintonWho is she? As if we have to tell you, but: She’s a trained attorney; former secretary of State in the Obama administration; former senator from New York; and former first lady.
Is she running? Yes.
Who wants her to run? Most of the Democratic Party.
Can she win the nomination? A better question is whether she can lose it.
What else do we know? The real puzzler, after so many years with Clinton on the national scene, is what we don't know. Here are 10 central questions to ask about the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Does her website have a good 404 page? If you’re tolerant of bad puns and ’90s’80s outfits, the answer is yes.

Steven Senne / AP
Lincoln ChafeeWho is he? The son of beloved Rhode Island politician John Chafee, Linc took his late father’s seat in the U.S. Senate, serving as a Republican. He was governor, first as an independent and then as a Democrat.
Is he running? Yes—he announced his run at George Mason University on June 3.
Who wants him to run? Beyond metric-system boosters? No one knows! Even in Rhode Island, Chafee doesn’t have much support—he opted not to seek re-election as governor in 2014, in part because his approval rating had reached a dismal 26 percent.
Can he win the nomination? No. Chafee seems to be positioning himself as an economic populist and says Clinton's 2002 vote for the Iraq war should disqualify her (he was the only Republican senator to vote against it). In other words: He's Jim Webb with a less impressive resume, a less compelling bio (he's the son of longtime Senator John Chafee), and less of a political base. He gives himself even odds, though.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

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Martin O'MalleyWho is he? He’s a former governor of Maryland and mayor of Baltimore.
Is he running? Yes. He announced his campaign on May 30.
Who wants him to run? Not clear. He has some of the leftism of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, but without the same grassroots excitement.

Can he win the nomination? Probably not. At the moment, O’Malley seems caught between Sanders, who has grasped the progressive mantle, and Clinton, who dominates the Democratic race overall. It’s hard to see where O'Malley would get an opening unless Clinton’s campaign fell apart. The conventional wisdom since protests over the death of Freddie Gray is that protests in Baltimore undermine the case for his candidacy and make it harder for him to run. Recently, he has feuded with Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, accusing the party apparatus of being in the tank for Clinton.
What else do we know? Have you heard that he plays in a Celtic rock band? Youhave? Oh.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

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Bernie SandersWho is he? A self-professed socialist, Sanders represented Vermont in the U.S. House from 1991 to 2007, when he won a seat in the Senate.
Is he running? Yes. He announced April 30.
Who wants him to run? Far-left Democrats; Brooklyn-accent aficionados; progressives who worry that a second Clinton administration would be far too friendly to the wealthy.
Can he win the nomination? When Sanders launched his campaign, this question seemed more or less beside the point. That’s no longer true: Sanders is running neck and neck or even ahead of Clinton in key early primary states. It remains extremely difficult to see him winning the nomination—as Dems from Howard Dean to George McGovern can remind you, primary voters tend to gravitate to “electable” general-election candidates alone. But Sanders has improbably become a huge force in a party he’s technically not a member of. He has made questions about inequality and economics central to the campaign, tugging Hillary Clinton to the left.

Does his website have a good 404 page? Yes, and it is quintessentially Sanders.

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Elizabeth WarrenWho is she? Warren has taken an improbable path from Oklahoma, to Harvard Law School, to progressive heartthrob, to Massachusetts senator.
Is she running? No. Seriously, no.
Who wants her to run? Progressive Democrats; economic populists, disaffected Obamans, disaffected Bushites.
Can she win the nomination? No, because she's not running.

* * *

The Republicans

Gage Skidmore
Jim Gilmore
Who is he? Right? Gilmore was governor of Virginia from 1998 to 2002. Before that, he chaired the Republican National Committee for a year. In 2008, he ran for Senate in Virginia and lost to Mark Warner by 31 points.
Is he running? Yes. He filed his papers on July 29.
Who wants him to run? Who knows? Gilmore ran for president briefly during the 2008 cycle before switching to the Senate race. There’s not exactly a groundswell for him this time, either. He says he has experience with national security and the economy that other Republican candidates don’t, and if he’s talking about Trump, it’s hard to disagree.
Can he win? Nah.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Nah.

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John Kasich
Who is he? The current Ohio governor ran once before, in 2000, after a stint as Republican budget guru in the House. Between then and his election in 2010, he worked at Lehman Brothers. Molly Ball wrote a definitive profile in April.

Is he running? Yes. His announcement was July 21 at Ohio State University in Columbus.
Who wants him to run? Kasich’s pitch: He’s got better fiscal-conservative bona fides than any other candidate in the race, he’s proven he can win blue-collar voters, and he’s won twice in a crucial swing state.
Can he win the nomination? As Ball noted, Kasich seems in some ways perfectly suited to this race; in other ways, his insistent anti-charisma makes it very hard to imagine him winning, and his attitude is amusingly blasé: “If they like it, great. If they don’t like it, I’ll play more golf.” He could be hurt by his embrace of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare, a move he had to circumvent the Republican-led General Assembly to make.
What else do we know? John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much he threw it out of his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargoso much he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism. John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Nope.

Gage Skidmore
Scott Walker
Who is he? Elected governor of Wisconsin in 2010, Walker earned conservative love and liberal hate for his anti-union policies. In 2013, he defeated a recall effort, and he won reelection the following year.
Is he running? Yes. He announced on July 13.
Who wants him to run? Walker's record as governor of Wisconsin excites many Republicans. He's got a solid résumé as a small-government conservative. His social-conservative credentials are also strong, but without the culture-warrior baggage that sometimes brings. And Walker has won three difficult elections in a blue-ish state. He’s said to be a favorite of the Koch brothers and their network.

Can he win the nomination? Very possibly. Despite his strengths, Walker has never run a national campaign and isn't exactly Mr. Personality. Most analysts place him in the top tier of candidates, but his early momentum has faded and Donald Trump has eclipsed him in Iowa. Walker remains an unsteady campaigner, and some of his allies are getting scared and calling for a campaign reboot.
What else do we know? Good news, bad news: Walker has a geographic advantage in his proximity to Iowa, but a potential biological disadvantage from his allergy to dogs.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Aye, matey.

David Shankbone
Chris Christie
Who is he? What’s it to you, buddy? The combative New Jerseyan is in his second term as governor and previously served as a U.S. attorney.
Is he running? Christie kicked off his campaign June 30 at Livingston High School, his alma mater.
Who wants him to run? Moderate and establishment Republicans who don't like Bush or Romney; big businessmen, led by Home Depot founder Ken Langone.
Can he win the nomination? No. The tide of opinion had turned against Christie even before the "Bridgegate" indictments. Citing his horrific favorability numbers, FiveThirtyEight bluntly puns that “Christie's access lanes to the GOP nomination are closed.”
Does his website have a good 404 page? We would have gone with the GIF, butsure.

Gage Skidmore
Bobby Jindal
Who is he? A Rhodes Scholar, he’s the outgoing governor of Louisiana. He previously served in the U.S. House.

Is he running? Yes. He kicked off his campaign on June 24.
Who wants him to run? It’s hard to say. Jindal has assiduously courted conservative Christians, both with a powerful conversion story (he was raised Hindu but converted to Catholicism in high school) and policies (after other governors reversed course, he charged forward with a religious-freedom law). But he still trails other social conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.
Can he win the nomination? Probably not. Jindal still lacks traction at the national level, he faces an overcrowded field of social conservatives, and his stewardship of Louisiana has come in for harsh criticism even from staunch fiscal conservatives. It’s hard to see how he gains momentum from here.
What else do we know? In 1994, he wrote an article called “Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare,” in which he described a friend’s apparent exorcism.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Meh. Good joke, but past its expiration date.

Gage Skidmore
Donald Trump
Who is he? The real-estate developer and reality-TV starfired TV personality almost certainly isn’t worth as much as he wants you to think he is.
Is he running? Is he ever! Surprising his rivals, the press, and—one suspects—himself, The Donald is the biggest political story in America.
Who wants him to run? A shocking portion of the Republican primary electorate; Democrats; white supremacists. The rest of the Republican field, along with its intellectual luminaries, however, seem horrified.

Can he win the nomination? At some point he has to collapse, right? This can’t go on forever, right? Right?

What else do we know? He cheats at golf, probably.

Gage Skidmore
Jeb Bush
Who is he? The brother and son of presidents, he served two terms as governor of Florida, from 1999 to 2007.
Is he running? Yes, as of June 15.
Who wants him to run? Establishment Republicans;George W. Bush; major Wall Street donors.
Can he win the nomination? Soon after Bush entered the race, predictions of a Bush-Clinton rematch of 1992 were common. Now, it’s hard to say. Clinton has stumbled, and so has Bush. He now lags well behind Trump, and has hit some fundraising turbulence (ironically caused, it seems, by his early prowess). Trump continues to treat Bush as his main rival, saving his most vicious attacks for Bush. There’s an amorphous expectation that once Trump’s bubble bursts, Bush will regain some altitude. But no one knows exactly how that would work, or how it will happen. Bush remains more moderate than much of the Republican primary electorate (especially on immigration—as the Trump boom has highlighted), his name remains a double-edged sword, and he just doesn’t look all that comfortable or joyous on the trail.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Yes—y en español también.

Gage Skidmore
Rick Perry
Who is he? George W. Bush’s successor as governor of Texas, he entered the 2012 race with high expectations, but sputtered out quickly. He left office in 2014 as the Lone Star State’s longest-serving governor.

Is he running? Yes. He announced on June 4. Perry dropped out of the race on September 11.
Who wanted him to run? Bueller?
Could he have won the nomination? No. Perry promoters insisted that Rick 2016 was a polished, smart campaigner, totally different from the meandering, spacey Perry of 2012. It didn’t seemed to matter in this field. Perry had to quit paying his staff in South Carolina and New Hampshire, and was down to a single staffer in Iowa when he dropped out.
Does his website have a good 404 page? That depends. Is this an “oops” joke?If so, yes.

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Lindsey Graham
Who is he? A senator from South Carolina, he’s John McCain’s closest ally in the small caucus of Republicans who are moderate on many issues but very hawkish on foreign policy.
Is he running? He sure is. Graham kicked off the campaign June 1.
Who wants him to run? John McCain, naturally. Senator Kelly Ayotte, possibly. Joe Lieberman, maybe?
Can he win the nomination? Not really. The South Carolina senator seems to be running in large part to make sure there’s a credible, hawkish voice in the primary. It seems like Graham started his campaign almost as a lark but has started to enjoy the ride, plus he’s shown he’s a great performer on the stump. Molly Ball explores his chances at greater length here.
What else do we know? Graham promises to have a rotating first lady if he wins.We nominate Lana del Ray.

Michael Vadon
George Pataki

Who is he? Pataki ousted incumbent Mario Cuomo in 1994 and served three terms as governor of New York.
Is he running? Yes. He announced May 28.
Who wants him to run? It's not clear. Establishment Northeastern Republicans once held significant sway over the party, but those days have long since passed.
Can he win the nomination? No. As my colleague Russell Berman previously noted, Pataki is one of the longest of the long-shot GOP candidates. He has touted his leadership on 9/11, when he served as governor, but so did former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He was also a successful conservative governor in a deep-blue Northeastern state, but so was former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. He seems to be socially liberal enough to alienate primary voters, but not enough to capture Democrats.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

Gage Skidmore
Rick Santorum
Who is he? Santorum represented Pennsylvania in the Senate from 1995 until his defeat in 2006. He was the runner-up for the GOP nomination in 2012.
Is he running? Yes, with a formal announcement on May 27.
Who wants him to run? Social conservatives. The former Pennsylvania senator didn't have an obvious constituency in 2012, yet he still went a long way, and Foster Friess, who bankrolled much of Santorum's campaign then, is ready for another round.
Can he win the nomination? It's tough to imagine. As much as Santorum feels he deserves more respect for his 2012 showing, neither voters nor the press seem inclined to give it to him, and he remains trapped in the basement.

Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

Gage Skidmore
Mike Huckabee
Who is he? An ordained preacher, former governor of Arkansas, and Fox News host, he ran a strong campaign in 2008, finishing third, but sat out 2012.
Is he running? Yes. He kicked off the campaign May 5.
Who wants him to run? Social conservatives; evangelical Christians.
Can he win the nomination? Huckabee's struggle is to prove that he's still relevant. Since he last ran in 2008, a new breed of social conservatives has come in, and he’s had trouble keeping up with fresher faces like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. His brand of moral crusading feels a bit out of date in an era of same-sex marriage—not least when he curiously chose to attack Beyoncé. Huckabee’s answer has been to play as a populist, but that has its own pitfalls: He faces firefrom strict conservative groups for tax hikes while he was governor.
Does his website have a good 404 page? It’s pretty good.

Gage Skidmore
Ben Carson
Who is he? A celebrated former head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, Carson became a conservative folk hero after a broadside against Obamacare at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast.
Is he running? Yes. He announced May 4.
Who wants him to run? Grassroots conservatives, who have boosted him up near the top of polls, even as Republican insiders cringe. Carson has an incredibly appealing personal story—a voyage from poverty to pathbreaking neurosurgery—and none of the taint of politics.

Can he win the nomination? History weighs heavily against Carson: Not since Dwight Eisenhower has either party nominated anyone without prior elected experience for the presidency. Nonetheless, Carson has quietly shown impressive staying power. He’s running second only to Trump in Iowa polls and inRealClearPolitics’s average of national polls. Still, Carson's politics are eclectic unto near incoherence, and he has a tendency to do things like compare ISIS to the Founding Fathers. He's also suffered from some campaign dysfunction.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

Gage Skidmore
Carly Fiorina
Who is she? Fiorina rose through the ranks to become CEO of Hewlett-Packard from 1999 to 2005, before being ousted in an acrimonious struggle. She advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and unsuccessfully challenged Senator Barbara Boxer of California in 2010.
Is she running? Yes, as of a May 4 announcement.
Who wants her to run? It isn’t clear exactly what Fiorina’s constituency is, but she’s a business-friendly candidates with a talent for a sharp turn of phrase or jab.
Can she win the nomination? The odds remain long, but Fiorina made the most of a spot at the “kid’s table” for the first GOP debate in August. She dominated the opening round and earned a likely promotion to the main stage of the second debate. Fiorina’s strength so far has been going into attack mode, whether that’s against Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Still, she faces the same challenges as Carson. Fiorina’s only previously political experience was a failed Senate campaign against Barbara Boxer in 2010.

What else do we know? Fiorina's 2010 Senate race produced two of the most entertaining and wacky political ads ever, "Demon Sheep" and the nearly eight-minute epic commonly known as "The Boxer Blimp."
Does her website have a good 404 page? No.

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Marco Rubio
Who is he? A second-generation Cuban-American and former speaker of the Florida House, Rubio was catapulted to national fame in the 2010 Senate election, after he unexpectedly upset Governor Charlie Crist to win the GOP nomination.
Is he running? Yes—he announced on April 13.
Who wants him to run? Rubio enjoys establishment support, and has sought to position himself as the candidate of an interventionist foreign policy.
Could he win the nomination? Charles Krauthammer pegs him as the Republican frontrunner. His best hope seems to be to emerge as a consensus candidate who can appeal to social conservatives and hawks, and he's even sounded some libertarian notes of late. He's well-liked by Republicans, and has surged forward since announcing, but he needs to move up from second choice to first choice for more of them. Rubio seems to scare Democrats more than any other candidate, too. At some point, however, he’ll have to start actually gaining in the polls.
Does his website have a good 404 page? It’s decent.

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Rand Paul
Who is he? An ophthalmologist and son of libertarian icon Ron Paul, he rode the 2010 Republican wave to the Senate, representing Kentucky.

Is he running? Yes, as of April 7.
Who wants him to run? Ron Paul fans; Tea Partiers; libertarians; civil libertarians; non-interventionist Republicans.
Can he win the nomination? Once tabbed by Time as the most interesting man in politics, he has failed to elicit much interest from voters so far. Paul’s unorthodox politics always made him tough to see in the Republican top tier, but he had impressed many observers during his time in the Senate as a wily campaigner. But his campaign seems stuck in neutral. He hasn’t managed to create the enthusiasm he needs among fans of his father, former Representative Ron Paul, still has no fundraising base, and seems to have largely disappeared from view, leaving in his wake lots of “What happened to Rand Paul?” headlines. A good debate in August would have helped him, but he didn’t have it.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

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Ted Cruz
Who is he? Cruz served as deputy assistant attorney general in the George W. Bush administration and was appointed Texas solicitor general in 2003. In 2012, he ran an insurgent campaign to beat a heavily favored establishment Republican for Senate.
Is he running? Yes. He launched his campaign March 23 at Liberty University in Virginia.
Who wants him to run? Hardcore conservatives; Tea Partiers who worry that Rand Paul is too dovish on foreign policy; social conservatives.
Can he win the nomination? Though his announcement gave Cruz both a monetary and visibility boost, he still carries serious weaknesses. Much of Cruz's appeal to his supporters—his outspoken stances and his willingness to thumb his nose at his own party—also imperil him in a primary or general election, and he's sometimes been is own worst enemy when it comes to strategy. But Cruz is familiar with running and winning as an underdog, and he seems to be positioning himself to absorb Trump supporters once the expected (but never explained) Trump collapse occurs.

Does his website have a good 404 page? No.

Gage Skidmore
Sarah Palin
Who is she? If you have to ask now, you must not have been around in 2008. That’s when John McCain selected the then-unknown Alaska governor as his running mate. After the ticket lost, she resigned her term early and became a television personality.
Is she running? A bizarre speech in January made a compelling case both ways.
Who wants her to run? Palin still has diehard grassroots fans, but there are fewer than ever.
Can she win the nomination? No.
When will she announce? It doesn't matter.

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Mitt Romney
Who is he? The Republican nominee in 2012 was also governor of Massachusetts and a successful businessman.
Is he running? Probably not, but who knows! He announced in late January that he would step aside, but now New York claims that the Trump boom has him reconsidering.
Who wanted him to run? Former staffers; prominent Mormons; Hillary Clinton's team. Romney polled well, but it's hard to tell what his base would have been. Republican voters weren't exactly ecstatic about him in 2012, and that was before he ran a listless, unsuccessful campaign. Party leaders and past donorswere skeptical at best of a third try.
Could he have won the nomination? He proved the answer was yes, but it didn't seem likely to happen again.

John Bolton

Who is he? A strident critic of the UN and leading hawk, he was George W. Bush’s ambassador to the UN for 17 months.

Is he running? Nope. After announcing his announcement, in the style of the big-time candidates, he posted on Facebook that he wasn’t running.

Who wanted him to run? Even among super-hawks, he didn’t seem to be a popular pick, likely because he had no political experience.

Could he have won the nomination? They say anything is possible in politics, but this would test the rule. A likelier outcome could be a plum foreign-policy role in a hawkish GOP presidency.

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